I was really amazed to hear the other day that the Federal Reserve is forecasting the unemployment to return to 4.5%. Just last year we witnesses the fastest and most severe economic shock in modern history. Perhaps we’ve forgotten how close to the “edge” we came.
Here’s a chart I made to really emphasize the shock and return. The red circle is the unemployment after the COVID-19. If you look at the data going back 40+ years, it’s easily the biggest spike in history:
This post has nothing to do with the stock market or trading. I say that because people often confuse the two. They are different animals. The market is not the economy and the economy is not the market. This post is actually about something a little more important. And it’s why I felt compelled to write it.
The resilience of America is truly outstanding. People will doubt it, bash it, claim things about growing debt or societal issues, but if you look at around, if you study even the last 30 years of global history, you will not find anything like this. It simply does not exist. There is a new path being paved and I hope it continues.
Let’s see. I am watching and learning as closely as ever.