I have to put my valuations aside, my technicals aside and politics aside. Put all of my inflation theories aside and everything else in-between.
The reality that I am late to and now really seeing is that we are in the midst of a lot of wars happening simultaneously. Before I go into each of these wars, I want to harp on something I have always believed in:
When I’m 70 years old, I plan to be near a pool. I plan to eat great breakfasts. I plan to relax. I plan to stay healthy and happy. Imagine not thinking that way? Imagine the mindset you have to have to think the opposite of that?
“When I’m 70 I want even more political power! More political work!”
The simple fact is anyone who thinks that way has serious issues. And that’s kind of where we are.
If you look around the political world, if you examine leaders in the mostly war mongering places, what you will find is mostly old men, over the age of 60, not in the greatest health, with little to no scientific background at all, potentially going senile as I type, controlling some of the largest armies on earth. Putin, Xi, and even Biden are all just about 70 years old or older and rumored to be in challenging health. I doubt any of them could explain how gravity works and I’m even more certain they truly have no clue what the Internet is.
The Russian war in Ukraine is really nasty. China is essentially on the verge of going after Taiwan next. The US is in a weird spot. Too many things are fragmenting around it and no way can the US monitor all of it at once. Tough decisions are going to have to be made. An entire generation of kids in America are going to have to toughen up real fast if this all accelerates.
Kids… yes. Let me write my thoughts about that: The worst part about all of this is the average age of the world is 31 years old. The world is really young! The average age of a global fighter is 21 years old. The average age of a global political leader is 69 years old – this is a total disgrace at all levels. The old man sends the kids to war. He has already lived his life. This is the terrible reality at the moment while we live in the most prosperous and technologically advanced moments in human history. Why can’t these old guys just enjoy it for a second?
I play this Pirate Ship game on Xbox where I join several random people from anywhere on earth, we all jump aboard a pirate ship. As a team of random people we have to raise the sails, position the sails, and steer the ship. We have to communicate, I use a headset, and search for treasure or fight off Megladons and Krakens when they appear.
Sometimes I am on ships with kids from other countries. I am not very good at the game, but I have a lot of fun playing. I can hear kids with a French accent yelling at me “Stef, please raise ze sails!” Or a Russian accent “Stef, we need more food in da barrels” or even Spanish or accents I cannot decipher “Come on Stef what iz you doing!” And yet, there we are, all working together, sailing around the seas, and loading our ship with treasure. The kids never care about my American accent or even my age. They are just having a great time online.
The joy of this has been such a wake up call to me. And I am reminded how many old people, currently in power especially, will never experience this or have any clue what’s happening. They will never join a Discord server or follow Mr. Beast on Youbtube. They don’t understand it and probably never will. Instead they are force feeding themselves headlines, news, and fear.
I often think about a kid from the 1920s or even the 1650s having a chance to see what we can do now. They would be speechless, totally speechless. I wish I as growing up today!
That’s why I’m still an optimist and excited for the future.
I don’t care what the Fed does and quite frankly I don’t think those with big money care what the Fed does either. They have teams of people studying global markets and movements 24 hours a day. I am convinced they see and know what’s going on even more than I do. They are hunkering down and preparing. Or perhaps waiting until it all blows over. Maybe they feel a similar way to me – the disconnect in what’s really happening on a day to day basis vs. what someone in power thinks is happening. I think it’s never been wider and it’s making a lot of things increasingly more dangerous.
Moving on a little: Do I think inflation is a threat? Do I think the economy is headed toward a recession? Hell no. I have so much reason to believe what I see all around me and people I talk to. The youth are coming into their own, we’ve never had so much individual access to technology as we do today. That’s what I think is so important: the tools are there for the most epic and happy, and opportunity filled world.
Anyways, that’s it. I personally have not changed much in my portfolio and I am losing just like you. Maybe I’ll add more on some epic dips?
More importantly I am staying really aware and alert. I’m also thinking deeply about how I can prepare myself, talk to others, and just remain strong willed and strong minded in what might be a really ugly next few months, not for markets, but for war mongering.