I just read how Google is acquiring Wiz for over $30 billion, and the previous week, Rocket Companies just bought Redfin, and now the San Francisco Giants recently sold a 10% stake to a major buyer. Is the M&A market thawing before our eyes? I think it is and for one rather smart reason: Everyone knows now is the time to strike before interest rates drop.
At a broad market level, valuations are as low as they’ve ever been without an ongoing crisis going on. Don’t look at the Mag 7, look at small and medium cap companies with strong free crash flow, little to no debt, and revenue growing 10% or more. I think some are figuring this out before rates get slashed. The smart play: buy now while prices are depressed, then refinance later when rates come down—before valuations reset on a lower risk-free rate.
Because of this, I decided to compile a list of all the M&A activity in public markets going back 12-24 months, as I think this could mean they are ripe for opportunity, no different than Google buying Wiz after it had attempted it a few years ago:
- First Horizon (FHN) – TD Bank attempted acquisition for expansion into the US, but the deal never materialized.
- Five9 (FIVN) – Zoom wanted to acquire them for AI contact center capabilities, but it never finalized.
- Western Digital (WDC) – Kioxia (Toshiba Memory) attempted merger for new growth, but the deal never materialized.
- Tegna (TGNA) – Standard General attempted acquisition, but the deal never materialized.
- U.S. Steel (X) – Cleveland-Cliffs attempted acquisition to get a strong presence in the market, but the deal never materialized.
- Wendy’s (WEN) – Trian Partners (Nelson Peltz) attempted buyout as being undervalued, but the deal never materialized.
- Roku (ROKU) – Netflix rumored the acquisition for its integrations and market share, but the deal never materialized.
- Humana – Cigna attempted acquisition to expand market share overnight, but the deal never materialized.
- Electronic Arts (EA) – Amazon rumored an acquisition similar to Microsoft and ATVI, but the deal never materialized.
- iRobot (IRBT) – Amazon wanted to acquire them for robotics, but was blocked.
- Peloton Interactive (PTON) – Amazon and Nike were rumored to attempt an acquisition, but the deal never materialized.
- Cedar Fair (FUN) – SeaWorld attempted acquisition to own the industry, but the deal never materialized.
- Mercury Systems (MRCY) – Veritas Capital attempted buyout, but the deal never materialized.
- Blackbaud (BLKB) – Clearlake Capital attempted acquisition, but the deal never materialized.
- Kohl’s (KSS) – Franchise Group attempted acquisition, but the deal never materialized.
- Rapid7 (RPD) – Thoma Bravo attempted buyout for various reasons, but the deal never materialized.
- NCR Corporation (VYX) – Veritas Capital attempted acquisition, but the deal never materialized.
- Manchester United (MANU) – Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad Al Thani attempted acquisition, but the deal never materialized.
- Desktop Metal (DM) – Stratasys attempted merger, but the deal never materialized.
- Stratasys (SSYS) – 3D Systems attempted acquisition, but the deal never materialized.
- Pinterest (PINS) – PayPal attempted acquisition, but the deal never materialized.
- GXO Logistics (GXO) – multiple private equity firms attempted buyout, but the deal never materialized.
- Riskified (RSKD) – private equity firms attempted buyout, but the deal never materialized.
- Spirit Airlines (SAVEQ) – Frontier Airlines attempted merger, but the deal never materialized.
- N-able (NABL) – private equity firms attempted buyout, but the deal never materialized.
- SolarWinds (SWI) – owners explored a sale, but the deal never materialized.
- Willis Towers Watson (WTW) – Aon plc attempted merger to expand right away, but the deal never materialized.
- Kansas City Southern (KSU) – Canadian National Railway attempted acquisition to become a powerhouse, but the deal never materialized.
- HP Inc. (HPQ) – Xerox Holdings attempted acquisition, but the deal never materialized.
- Qualcomm (QCOM) – Broadcom attempted acquisition, but the deal never materialized.
- Stratasys (SSYS) – Nano Dimension attempted acquisition, but the deal never materialized.
- NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) – Qualcomm attempted acquisition to become larger, but the deal never materialized.
- Illumina (ILMN) – Roche Holding attempted acquisition, but the deal never materialized.
- Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) – JetBlue Airways attempted merger to expand, but the deal never materialized.
This should be interesting to watch over the next year.
One final note: all of these are just reported or rumored or discussed M&A activity. Nothing is set in stone.