When it comes to SpaceX, everyone talks about Starlink, satellites, transportation, data centers and Mars. All interesting. But, also all of it known and priced in. Probably the bigger, lesser discussed play, is the platform SpaceX is creating for manufacturing in space that is called Starfall. I don’t see this discussed too much, but it’s the only thing that really interests me.
Let me explain:
On Earth, gravity is constantly messing with everything we make from scratch whether it’s an advanced compound of defense or just mixing oil and vinegar for a salad. Heavy particles sink, lighter materials rise, tiny imperfections compound, and all of that makes everything theoretically less perfect than it could be.
In space, the lack or very little amount of gravity, removes much of that force which causes imperfections. Do you see where I am going with this now? For a salad dressing, that may not make much sense unless you love oil and vinegar sticking together with every bite and not seperating as much, but for making new drugs, new semiconductors, new base compounds, it changes everything.
Some base level thoughts:
• Purer semiconductor crystals
• Lower-loss fiber optics
• Ultra pure protein crystals for drug discovery
• The most precise pharmaceuticals imaginable
• And the list goes on and on and on
The logic is fairly straightforward: purer crystals, compounds and molecules create better materials. Better materials create better chips, better medicines and devices that may not even be possible on Earth today.
This just changes the entire trajectory of everything over the next 10 years. No mind can truly comprehend what this unlocks. It just has to be done and the future will present itself.
So rockets might only be the delivery trucks to what will really happen as the real prize could be owning the first factory floor that isn’t on Earth which builds better crystals and thus the greatest molecules man has ever invented – remarkably fast and efficient chips, medicines that perform at never been seen rates, and entirely new devices that were previously impossible because of gravity.
All in all, as a trader and investor myself, I have been watching SpaceX since it starting cratering. I think it could A LOT lower, but I also wonder if it could go higher. I have no idea! This is not advice or any kind this is just for education and general pontificating.
I am writing this post to share my thoughts and chat with others. If you have any insights, please let me know. Currently I am stuck on this trade of which there are only two ways to play this:
- It’s wildly overvalued. Wait for the Meta IPO-style haircut, then buy the rip. This could take 1-3 yeras to develop.
- Or… we’re going full Dutch East India Company a monopoly on the infrastructure, transportation and factories of an entirely in space. In that scenario, when adjusted for inflation, for it to become the world’s most valuable company like the Dutch East India Company, an $8+ trillion valuation eventually enters the chat.
Now there is another issue with #2. The simple fact is that markets are far more liquid and efficient today. Too many market makers, liquidity providers and sellers waiting at every level making spreads tight and scarcity-driven straight-line moonshot like the Dutch East India Company at its peak far less improbable.
So there it is. My thoughts on SpaceX.
Looking forward to seeing what’s next!