I wrote this on X the other day, while markets were tanking: my feed is more flooded with 2008–2009 financial crisis comparisons than I can ever remember—maybe even more than during the COVID crash. And look, I traded back then. I was just a young buck with a few thousand to my name, thinking I was the next Warren Buffett. I bought the dip… just the wrong dip. Instead of JPMorgan or Bank of America, I went with National Bank of Greece and Washington Mutual. The only two banks that essentially zeroed out equity holders!
I learned. I was in the trenches.
But here’s the key difference: back then, the problem was simple and terrifying—where is the money? It was vanishing. No one could move capital. Money existed on paper, but not in reality. The system was frozen.
That is not today. There are key differences now: today, businesses are holding strong. Capital is flowing. Banks are healthy—thanks to the very reforms born from 2008: stress tests, capital requirements, better governance. Even households are sitting on cash. Debt as a percentage of wealth? Near lows. Disposable income adjusted for inflation? Still at the highs. Employment? Incredibly high by all historical standards.
So how does this compare to 2008? They are two totally different moments.
And yet, I’m still trying to process how completely the financial world lost its composure over the past few weeks. In my view, the panic is wildly disconnected from reality. We live in an era where you can tap your phone and buy a burrito in three seconds. Tools like ChatGPT are unlocking 10x productivity across everything we do. It is greater than the Internet itself. We are building faster, learning faster, solving faster.
It’s a remarkable time to be alive.
America is huge. There’s room for everything—robotics factories, 3D printing startups, aerospace labs in your garage. Regulations are loosening, incentives are rising, and the fastest-growing university majors are materials science, robotics, and aerospace. That’s the future. The next generation are incredibly lucky and they’re going to lap us all in the hard sciences.
I guess it all boils down to this… Big man in little White House scared so many people. It is remarkable to see. Also, I keep coming back to this one thought: tariffs on a country you’ve never been to that takes three flights and a boat to reach, is generally just psychosis. Go listen to earnings reports of people actually going through it – it’s very different what they’re saying and what most are imagining.
Anyways, on to the next great wave.
Keep building!