“If a man knows not to which port he sails, no wind is favorable.” – Senaca

I am thinking a lot about markets, especially with the AI trend really just now entering everyone’s network. It comes up at every dinner party or gathering. It now reminds me of crypto when it first getting started. I want to say 15 years ago or so, crypto was just getting started, right as the holidays kicked off. At that time, it seemed like everyone was talking about crypto that holiday season.

I can vividly remember my friends or family asking “Have you heard of that crypto thing?”

That was 15 years ago. Now look where we are. Crypto went full mainstream, became apart of everything. On to the next – AI.

These trends can last a long time.

If that crypto chat I am referring to was 15 years ago, and we now see how long it lasted, and now we are just starting to see the AI trend, imagine what this will look like in the 10+ years.

It is almost impossible to imagine. I have really have no idea. I have written a few times about robotics and am a believer in the long atoms, short bits trade. But it’s never that easy.

The rate of change is accelerating.

As an investor, you must ask: do you know what port you are heading to? Do you know the winds? For the first time in a while, I think the best thing is to do is nothing. Don’t be aggressive, don’t make bold bets, don’t get on any boat for a long voyage. Stay at shore for a bit, wait for the skies to clear, and when the time is right, set out.

Related to my last post just from a few days ago, bonds are back.