I’ve owned a bit of Bitcoin since around 2013. I’ve always found it fascinating, as new technologies tend to capture my attention quickly. However, with each bull market surge, like we’re seeing now, I instinctively look for what’s coming next. And each time, one central question continues to linger in my mind and that’s the ongoing mystery surrounding its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, and the fact that he holds such a large amount of Bitcoin.
Most people now seem to assume that Nakamoto has either passed away or lost access to his keys, effectively burning those coins.
But what if that’s not the case?
If Nakamoto is still around, simply choosing not to move his holdings, this would mean that a significant portion of Bitcoin’s market cap—around 5%, if my research is accurate—is controlled by one person, totaling about 600,000 to 1.1 million BTC. At a price of $90,000 per Bitcoin, this translates to a value ranging from $54 billion to $99 billion.
I have to wonder, is this a Black Swan event for Bitcoin? How quickly could the market absorb this news? At what price levels would the market price it in?
On the other hand, you can look at Bitcoin as a technology embodying resilience. In that light, it’s no different than owning NVIDIA or Apple at these levels, investors buying it for its future cash flows.
Note: everyone has their prediction, and I believe I have finally figured out who I think Satoshi Nakamoto is. But that is for another post.