Trading & Investing Insights
Daily trading and investing insights from Stefan Cheplick (@Scheplick) – forged through 15 years of building products that helped shape web-based financial research, the rise of modern retail investing, and what’s coming next.
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- The Next Layer of AIOpenAI’s latest sneak peak into what it’s building for voice and voice control is the clearest signal yet of what I think is coming next. If you have been using… Read more: The Next Layer of AI
- The Real Treasury TwistEveryone I know is bearish or pessimistic or just “too smart” to believe US Treasuries are good play right now. In addition, the Treasury Secretary getting involved… well he must… Read more: The Real Treasury Twist
- The Treasury Bond Resurgence Part IIMy hottest US debt take: First, a massive portion of US debt ($33 trillion of it!!!) is ultimately held by US financial system itself including the Fed, banks, funds, pensions,… Read more: The Treasury Bond Resurgence Part II
- About The Hedge Fund Kid Who Blew Up His Account24 year old kid, all-in on trendy stocks, 4x leverage, making tons of “LinkedIn” type content blew up a hedge fund… I mean, this is a tale as old as… Read more: About The Hedge Fund Kid Who Blew Up His Account
- SpaceX, Gravity, and Starfall Crystals in SpaceWhen it comes to SpaceX, everyone talks about Starlink, satellites, transportation, data centers and Mars. All interesting. But, also all of it known and priced in. Probably the bigger, lesser… Read more: SpaceX, Gravity, and Starfall Crystals in Space
- When Everyone’s Investing With AI, The Real Pros Have a NotepadAI has created something I never thought was possible: endless, and I mean endless, content and insights about financial markets. For me, this is surprising as I have literally spent… Read more: When Everyone’s Investing With AI, The Real Pros Have a Notepad
- How AI Impacts The Nasdaq-100As I write this today, I can see the divergence in a way I can barely ever remember. In particular, trends related to what AI is doing to the Nasdaq.… Read more: How AI Impacts The Nasdaq-100
- More Micron Musings: My Most Read Post of The YearAbout one month ago, I wrote about Micron and its surge. I also commented on Sandisk and other memory stocks as I called it “Memory Chip Mania.” Thanks to some… Read more: More Micron Musings: My Most Read Post of The Year
- Some Facts About The SpaceX IPOI must say, the stats coming from the SpaceX IPO are remarkable. But first, as you read this post, please keep in mind that I am in no way endorsing… Read more: Some Facts About The SpaceX IPO
- How AI Changes Everything For Retail Traders & InvestorsI think one can make the argument that being a self-directed trader or investor in 2026 is perhaps the greatest time ever, and I mean ever, to be just that.… Read more: How AI Changes Everything For Retail Traders & Investors
- Investing Lesson #6: Watch For Your OpportunityCrossing a street in New York City, in a way, serves as a nice investing lesson.— an investing lesson about when to follow the crowd and when not to. One… Read more: Investing Lesson #6: Watch For Your Opportunity
- My View on the End of Quarterly Earnings Reports and the Rise of Semiannual ReportingThe other day, while surfing Reddit, I stumbled across a breaking news story about quarterly earnings reports that immediately caught my attention. I’ve spent more than 14 years on Reddit… Read more: My View on the End of Quarterly Earnings Reports and the Rise of Semiannual Reporting
- The End of Social Feeds: Less Screens, More MachinesFor more than ten years now, probably 15, the center of gravity in tech has been Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, TikTok, Tinder, YouTube, and other tools like this. While this is… Read more: The End of Social Feeds: Less Screens, More Machines
- Why Everyone Misunderstands US DebtUS debt explained in plain terms: there is a large swath of US debt doomers out there. You see them on social media and in blog posts. They write things… Read more: Why Everyone Misunderstands US Debt
- A Few Learnings From Memory Chip Mania: Micron and SanDiskWhat Drove the Memory Chip Mania? If you blinked at all over the last year, you missed one of the most explosive runs in the semiconductor sector in recent memory.… Read more: A Few Learnings From Memory Chip Mania: Micron and SanDisk
- The Greatest Deflationary Force of Our TimeThe greatest deflationary force AI and GLP-1 drugs represent may be the most underappreciated economic shift of this decade. I recently read a study about how food, drink, and alcohol… Read more: The Greatest Deflationary Force of Our Time
- Markets and Good WeatherAs you age you are reminded that good weather is always better than markets. Never let markets mess with your enjoyment of good weather. Construct one’s plan accordingly. Having been… Read more: Markets and Good Weather
- Investing Lesson #5: There’s No Such Thing as “Free” ResearchIn financial markets, nothing is ever “free.” It may look free. It may feel free. It may be presented as research, and arrive in your inbox beautifully formatted, shared on… Read more: Investing Lesson #5: There’s No Such Thing as “Free” Research
- When Doing Nothing In Markets is The Move“If a man knows not to which port he sails, no wind is favorable.” – Senaca I am thinking a lot about markets, especially with the AI trend really just… Read more: When Doing Nothing In Markets is The Move
- Bonds Are BackA scrappy old bond trader once said to me: if we go below 5, we’re going to 3, and if we go below 3, we’re going to 1. He was… Read more: Bonds Are Back
- Invisible Guest Theory and InvestingThe Invisible Guest Theory is one of those ideas that stops you cold. It suggests that many of our interactions — whether we realize it or not — are quietly… Read more: Invisible Guest Theory and Investing
- Investing Lesson #4: Always Someone Faster Than YouI was taught early on to frame athletic competition in specific way, to understand the depth of the players on the field. As a kid, the exact saying that inspired… Read more: Investing Lesson #4: Always Someone Faster Than You
- Thomas Jefferson’s Wisdom on Being Young and Broke“I know nothing more important to inculcate into the minds of young people than the wisdom, the honor, and the blessed comfort of living within their income. To calculate in… Read more: Thomas Jefferson’s Wisdom on Being Young and Broke
- The Who Cares MentalityAs the Winter Olympics pick up, I am enjoying watching the various sports that revolve around cold weather and snow. In many ways, it is our natural given duty and… Read more: The Who Cares Mentality
- Investing Tip #3: Never Trade on Your PhoneEndless marketing campaigns try to make this aspect of placing trades while “you’re on the go” a cool thing to do. Skiing? Just stop at the top of a mountain… Read more: Investing Tip #3: Never Trade on Your Phone
- What’s Next For The Silver Trade?The owner of Zhongcai Futures in Asia has apparently placed a $300 million short bet on silver making it one of the larger “all in” global bets on the precious… Read more: What’s Next For The Silver Trade?
- Thinking About 5% GDP GrowthAs an investor trying to think where the growth comes from next, I think you can really reduce it to a simple question: If you want to see sustained 5%… Read more: Thinking About 5% GDP Growth
- Investing Tip #2: Have You Actually Used The Product?In my quest to continue writing quick and witty investing tips, as seen here in my first tip, I am ready to post tip #2 which is as simple as… Read more: Investing Tip #2: Have You Actually Used The Product?
- Investing Tip #1: Would People Actually Miss the CompanyI’ve been thinking about quick and witty investment sayings. I want to start my own series on the topic. So this is post one. Here’s my first go at it.… Read more: Investing Tip #1: Would People Actually Miss the Company
- From Epic Trade to Epic Crash: Silver EditionThe other day, I was fascinated by the rise of gold and silver. I feel it marks an important shift in the movement from bits (SaaS, software, tech) to atoms… Read more: From Epic Trade to Epic Crash: Silver Edition
- The Epic Metals Trade That Defines The Next EraI am looking at markets today, following themes and trends, and one stands out: The ticker $GOLD (gold.com) is going parabolic. As the price of gold and silver increase, the… Read more: The Epic Metals Trade That Defines The Next Era
- The Great Silver Breakout of 2025I love looking at charts near the end of the year to see what worked, what did not, and most importantly, what happened that everyone missed. Silver, this year, falls… Read more: The Great Silver Breakout of 2025
- The Age of The PolymathI think a lot about the job market and especially students who want to land a job right after school. With AI, this is changing everything for jobs that are… Read more: The Age of The Polymath
- Dream Scale Now and Don’t Let Anyone Stop YouMy entire new approach to social media is that if it does not elevate the soul in any meaningful way, it is instantly worth blocking, muting and/or never engaging with… Read more: Dream Scale Now and Don’t Let Anyone Stop You
- The Rise of Dream Scaling, The Fall of Doom ScrollingI am fascinated by AI’s ability to speed up one’s art. Not just work or writing or researching, but art, dreams, things that elevate the soul. To create new worlds,… Read more: The Rise of Dream Scaling, The Fall of Doom Scrolling
- Your Next Great Investment Starts With HelloI just learned a great investing story about Shaq. Yes, that Shaq. Back in 1999, he demonstrated a principle most people forget to talk about: stay open, stay curious, and… Read more: Your Next Great Investment Starts With Hello
- The Best Traders Trade Like ThemselvesTrading is full of ironies, but none is more widespread, with little attention paid to this problem, than the disconnect between the system a trader follows and the way they… Read more: The Best Traders Trade Like Themselves
- If You’re Not Sleeping, You Shouldn’t Manage MoneyEvery bad decision that I have ever made in markets has come from a period of terrible sleep. Being a trader (or an investor) teaches you a lot about yourself.… Read more: If You’re Not Sleeping, You Shouldn’t Manage Money
- The Trader in The MountainsThere’s a story that has almost been forgotten. A man who embraced the opposite of speed, noise, and constant information. Their success came not from more data, more research, or… Read more: The Trader in The Mountains
- Nike is Tapping Back Into Its RootsThere are good ads, great ads, and then there are messages that resonate. Every great advertiser aims for that resonance, but few ever achieve it. You don’t want an ad… Read more: Nike is Tapping Back Into Its Roots
- The Irony of Dollar DoomersOn my X feed, and in specific investing blogs I read, there is an endless supply of “inflation panic” and “dollar devalue” content. It also seems to always go viral.… Read more: The Irony of Dollar Doomers
- Reflecting on 249 Years of AmericaThis July 4, the United States of America will be 249 years old. Why does that matter? A few reasons and let me explain the first: It’s actually one of… Read more: Reflecting on 249 Years of America
- The Tech We Have, That You Don’t KnowThe stealth bomber is a technology miracle. Let me explain a few facts about this massive piece of technology: Stealth: Virtually invisible to radar due to its ultra sleek, never… Read more: The Tech We Have, That You Don’t Know
- The Factory Boom is HereI read a great post on X the other day and I’ll highlight what’s at stake. More importantly, before I share these notes, take a moment to pass this post… Read more: The Factory Boom is Here
- The Massive Bull Case for Domestic Manufacturing CompaniesSometimes, the best investments and themes become the best not because of their truly profound nature, but actually because of the tax code and government incentives that have been layered… Read more: The Massive Bull Case for Domestic Manufacturing Companies
- Too Many Digital Opinions, Not Enough Physical OpinionsI find it increasingly interesting how in the “digital know” people are relative to the physical world and I believe that, in and of itself, is a massive bubble. What… Read more: Too Many Digital Opinions, Not Enough Physical Opinions
- The $1,000 Trump Investment Account is Not a Good IdeaI’ve been thinking about this proposed “Invest America” plan or the $1,000 “Trump Accounts.” The idea is simple on the surface. Every newborn in the country gets automatic enrollment into… Read more: The $1,000 Trump Investment Account is Not a Good Idea
- Warren Buffett Started as a Pinball ManSo, I just learned this the other day, and this story is fantastic. I’ll try to tell it the best I can: After college, Warren Buffett had a friend named… Read more: Warren Buffett Started as a Pinball Man
- Elon Musk is Wrong About The Big Beautiful BillMortgage debt makes more than $12 trillion of all debt out there. It’s just massive. And, despite that, America remains absurdly productive. GDP is growing, innovation is relentless, and new… Read more: Elon Musk is Wrong About The Big Beautiful Bill
- My Thoughts on US DebtI believe that there’s a clear distinction in debt at the sovereign level: a country is thriving or a country is stagnant. For a country that is thriving, especially on… Read more: My Thoughts on US Debt
- Exploring Onshore Manufacturing Stocks in the USThere’s no denying the trend is in full swing. It’s best to latch on now. Reduce risk, reduce volatility, and find companies building the next wave of manufacturing globally—right here… Read more: Exploring Onshore Manufacturing Stocks in the US
- The First Time Ever I’ve Become an Apple BearApple, the three trillion-dollar titan that everyone has been following for a decade now, the so-called invincible company, is quietly approaching a fiscal cliff that I think few are taking… Read more: The First Time Ever I’ve Become an Apple Bear
- My Unfiltered Views on Markets Right NowI’m still a believer in one of the most powerful economic strategies on the table right now: grow GDP faster than debt. It’s a clean, bullish way to address the… Read more: My Unfiltered Views on Markets Right Now
- A Quick Reflection on My CareerThe other day, someone asked me a simple but loaded question: What projects are you most proud of in your career? It made me pause. Since graduating in 2012, I’ve… Read more: A Quick Reflection on My Career
- Risk Management Principles to Survive All MarketsI have seen enough in the world of investing and trading to know that anything is possible. Anything. You may think you are positioned for risk, but then, something happens… Read more: Risk Management Principles to Survive All Markets
- Pride Goeth Before a FallThere is no more important saying in my life than this. Pride Goeth Before a Fall. If I look back at pivotal moments in my life, in almost every instance… Read more: Pride Goeth Before a Fall
- The More Unplugged You Are, The Better You’ll DoA theme I continue to focus on is the endless nature of modern day notifications, social media posts, viral memes, podcasts, email newsletters, push alerts, video clips, autoplay ads, banner… Read more: The More Unplugged You Are, The Better You’ll Do
- Fear is Easy, Patience is HardSeneca once said, “We suffer more in imagination than in reality.” This resonates deeply as volatility spikes and headlines flare. Digital news is, in a way, imagination — ink on… Read more: Fear is Easy, Patience is Hard
- The Difference Between Inflation and Tariffs That 99% of People Get WrongWhen tariffs enter the news cycle, so does panic about inflation. Commentators sound the alarm: prices are going up! The cost of living is going to skyrocket! Tariffs, they argue,… Read more: The Difference Between Inflation and Tariffs That 99% of People Get Wrong
- What Actually Happened to Stocks and Tariffs in the 1920s?One of the great fear mongering talking points today is the aspect that tariffs caused the 1929 crash. I find this rather fascinating because if you take the time to… Read more: What Actually Happened to Stocks and Tariffs in the 1920s?
- My Favorite Mind Tricks To Avoid Bad InvestmentsAs many who venture into markets know, some of the best investors don’t just study markets — they study their own minds. In investing, there’s nothing worse than losing money… Read more: My Favorite Mind Tricks To Avoid Bad Investments
- Atoms vs. Bits: The Next Wave for InvestorsI’ve fully come around to the view that, over the past decade—and especially now with AI—we’ve pushed the limits of what can be achieved by simply moving bits around on… Read more: Atoms vs. Bits: The Next Wave for Investors
- What If Lower Rates Are Actually Deflationary?I’ve been thinking a lot about this, and now I am ready to write it. In my view, the belief that higher interest rates reduce inflation no longer holds true… Read more: What If Lower Rates Are Actually Deflationary?
- The Case For Tariffs: A Deep Dive Into the UnthinkableWhat if I told you everyone misunderstood tariffs? The nuances, the specifics of the moment. Do you want to challenge your mind and see a counter point argument to what… Read more: The Case For Tariffs: A Deep Dive Into the Unthinkable
- The 10-10-10 Rule for InvestorsThe last few days, I’ve been on a kick, writing about rules and quick tips for investors. I am compiling an entire list here on my blog and today I… Read more: The 10-10-10 Rule for Investors
- The Three Buckets Rule That Separates Long-term Investing from Pure SpeculationFinancial markets are often taken too lightly. Especially in up markets, when trends are easy, and it feels more like a game than a long-term plan to invest into companies… Read more: The Three Buckets Rule That Separates Long-term Investing from Pure Speculation
- You’ve Never Seen This Much Fear Mongering in Such Amazing TimesI wrote this on X the other day, while markets were tanking: my feed is more flooded with 2008–2009 financial crisis comparisons than I can ever remember—maybe even more than… Read more: You’ve Never Seen This Much Fear Mongering in Such Amazing Times
- The Power of Beta in Volatile MarketsMarkets have been jumping like the day you drank your first cup of coffee — sharp rallies one day, faceplants the next. In times like these, it’s critical to revisit… Read more: The Power of Beta in Volatile Markets
- The Rule of 252 for Investors and TradersWhen markets are volatile, crashing, thrashing, and making headlines by the minute, I’m reminded of all the fascinating calculations and quick tips that help me recalibrate. Not just numbers, but… Read more: The Rule of 252 for Investors and Traders
- When Volatility Spikes, You Must Remember Pareto’s RulesThe recent correction has me thinking quite deeply about my next big play. There are some famous adages in this world about such events, where everyone has a plan until… Read more: When Volatility Spikes, You Must Remember Pareto’s Rules
- The VIX Rule of 16 for Investors and TradersThe VIX rule of 16 is a helpful guideline for all the investors and traders out there. It’s simple, to the point, and a nice rule of thumb to follow… Read more: The VIX Rule of 16 for Investors and Traders
- Digesting All The Market ActionOne interesting anecdote emerging about markets lately is just the sheer exhaustion of the news, constantly hitting. Every day, there’s something new. What’s rather interesting is that this not a… Read more: Digesting All The Market Action
- Lessons From The Last Month of MarketsLots of “argh” moments lately. I could keep sharing them—and maybe I will—but for now, here’s a more complete reflection. Markets have a funny way of reminding us who’s boss.… Read more: Lessons From The Last Month of Markets
- How The Tariff Playbook Should Have WentI’ve been thinking a lot about tariffs lately, specifically the way the current administration rolled them out and announced them—and while I still believe they’re useful, and critical to push… Read more: How The Tariff Playbook Should Have Went
- The Next Wave of Market Giants are Physical BuildersIf I could, I’d be all in on the new wave of purely American-made car manufacturers with the best software architecture and supply chains. Why? Because they have the finest… Read more: The Next Wave of Market Giants are Physical Builders
- Why Tariffs Do Not Cause Inflation: There Are Substitute ProductsThese days, I find it more important than ever to stay up-to-date on economic events, and, as a new father, my passion for economics—which I studied in school and have… Read more: Why Tariffs Do Not Cause Inflation: There Are Substitute Products
- Want To Learn About Tariffs? Talk To People Who Actually BuildThere’s a surprising shortage of well thought, grounded information out there about economics today. And nowhere is that more obvious than in the recent wave of tariff hysteria. You’ve probably… Read more: Want To Learn About Tariffs? Talk To People Who Actually Build
- Epic Moves Happen at Pivotal MomentsNot long ago, I wrote about how Rivian was the first $100 billion pre revenue company to ever go public. At the time, it was my most read post of… Read more: Epic Moves Happen at Pivotal Moments
- The M&A Market is ThawingI just read how Google is acquiring Wiz for over $30 billion, and the previous week, Rocket Companies just bought Redfin, and now the San Francisco Giants recently sold a… Read more: The M&A Market is Thawing
- Investing in People With StrengthI am a small cap investor. I follow small cap stocks very closely. Especially when a company has a great product and is lead by someone with principles, ethics, and… Read more: Investing in People With Strength
- An Incredible Stock Market Opportunity Has ArrivedIn the stock market, the biggest single-day surges almost always come in the aftermath of a correction, crash, or outright panic. Historical data supports this: of the 30 best trading… Read more: An Incredible Stock Market Opportunity Has Arrived
- Here Comes The Deregulation WaveThe market just tanked, but all the while, and especially within the last few hours, significant deregulatory actions have been announced by both the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and the… Read more: Here Comes The Deregulation Wave
- The Bessent and Powell PlanThe other day, I heard that Scott Bessent had lunch with Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve—their first-ever meeting. Before us stand two of the greatest political money thinkers of… Read more: The Bessent and Powell Plan
- Powell and Bessent: The Greatest Fiscal Duo of Our TimeBookmark this post. I’ll come back to it soon. But first, I want you to see the headline I am working on as the history books will write about these… Read more: Powell and Bessent: The Greatest Fiscal Duo of Our Time
- The Worst Jobs Report Ever is the BEST Jobs Report EverThe upcoming jobs report (the one today or if not later next month) is going to be historically bad—so bad, in fact, that it might just be incredible. For the… Read more: The Worst Jobs Report Ever is the BEST Jobs Report Ever
- Why I’m More Critical of Traditional Economic Data Than EverAs many of you know, I’ve been critical of the current landscape of economic data that’s reported to the masses. As we become smarter, more interconnected, and more technologically advanced,… Read more: Why I’m More Critical of Traditional Economic Data Than Ever
- Looking For Outperformance In The CrashWhile the markets are struggling, certain sectors are standing out with strong relative outperformance. In this post, I want to examine what’s going on beyond the indexes. Yes, the Nasdaq-100… Read more: Looking For Outperformance In The Crash
- The Greatest Economic Dance Ever WitnessedThe stage is set. The world’s largest economy is about to embark on a pivot that’ll go 0 to 1 faster than Peter Thiel could ever imagine. In the halls… Read more: The Greatest Economic Dance Ever Witnessed
- No Matter What They Say, They Are Paying AttentionI had to check these stats twice. When was the last time you looked at news stocks? Like many of you, I watched the press conference between Trump and Zelensky.… Read more: No Matter What They Say, They Are Paying Attention
- Value Stocks Are Moving While Markets TankAs I type, the Nasdaq-100 has just experienced one of its fastest seven-day corrections in the last 12 months. It’s also now in the red on a year-to-date basis. My… Read more: Value Stocks Are Moving While Markets Tank
- Here’s Every Country That Tariffs AmericaA lot of people talk about tariffs, but few actually look around at the exact countries that have been imposing tariffs on America while America does not impose similar tariffs… Read more: Here’s Every Country That Tariffs America
- The “Hell Yes” or “No” MovementI just read about Jeff Bezos pivoting The Washington Post’s editorial section to focus on only two things: personal liberties and free markets. This is quite the shift for a… Read more: The “Hell Yes” or “No” Movement
- When Stocks Fall Because of Economic EventsEarlier today, a certain economic report was suddenly publishing across all of the mainstream newswires. In addition, a friend of mine, who casually follows markets, said to me that this… Read more: When Stocks Fall Because of Economic Events
- Brilliant Cash Management from a Company You Never Heard OfI am just learning about Five9’s (ticker FIVN and publicly traded) epic cash management. Actually, this might be one of the best trades I’ve seen from a company with a… Read more: Brilliant Cash Management from a Company You Never Heard Of
- My Thoughts on The Biggest Crypto Hack EverBybit was recently hacked, with over $1 billion worth of Ethereum stolen. It became the dominant topic in my group chats and social feeds. I don’t know much about Bybit… Read more: My Thoughts on The Biggest Crypto Hack Ever
- The Opportunity for Alpha Is to Go SlowerI construct my own portfolio and follow every stock or instrument within it with extreme diligence—daily news wires, earnings reports, and, most importantly, SEC filings. That, after all, is the… Read more: The Opportunity for Alpha Is to Go Slower
- My Thoughts on The Doge DividendI recently read about the potential for a Doge Dividend paid to all US citizens of a certain age. I personally think this is brilliant and absolutely not a joke.… Read more: My Thoughts on The Doge Dividend
- Trading Wisdom From Ancient VenetiansI am always looking at history for new and interesting examples about investing. The main reason why I do this is because, the dual approach of investing and innovation have… Read more: Trading Wisdom From Ancient Venetians
- Ben Franklin Wisdom for InvestingWhen I lived in Boston, nothing inspired me more than seeing the historic pieces, wonderfully maintained, in the heart of the city, including Ben Franklin’s birthplace. While he needs no… Read more: Ben Franklin Wisdom for Investing
- A Lesson In Following Economic DataEarlier this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its CPI statistics, which are used to measure inflation, and ultimately sending shockwaves through financial circles. The headline takeaway? Inflation… Read more: A Lesson In Following Economic Data
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