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Stocks and Every Presidential Election

I’ve decided to make a page, a database if you will, of every Presidential Election in the United States as far back as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. As this list gets started, it will only get more comprehensive. For now, it is simply a list of the year, the candidates who competed, and the market’s return during the year of the election from Jan 1 to Dec 31.

1896

  • Candidates: William McKinley vs. William Jennings Bryan
  • Dow Return: +10.6%

1900

  • Candidates: William McKinley vs. William Jennings Bryan
  • Dow Return: +7.1%

1904

  • Candidates: Theodore Roosevelt vs. Alton B. Parker
  • Dow Return: -23.6%

1908

  • Candidates: William Howard Taft vs. William Jennings Bryan
  • Dow Return: +46.6%

1912

  • Candidates: Woodrow Wilson vs. Theodore Roosevelt vs. William Howard Taft
  • Dow Return: +7.6%

1916

  • Candidates: Woodrow Wilson vs. Charles Evans Hughes
  • Dow Return: +2.6%

1920

  • Candidates: Warren G. Harding vs. James M. Cox
  • Dow Return: -32.9%

1924

  • Candidates: Calvin Coolidge vs. John W. Davis
  • Dow Return: +26.2%

1928

  • Candidates: Herbert Hoover vs. Al Smith
  • S&P 500 Return: +43.6%

1932

  • Candidates: Franklin D. Roosevelt vs. Herbert Hoover
  • S&P 500 Return: -8.2%

1936

  • Candidates: Franklin D. Roosevelt vs. Alf Landon
  • S&P 500 Return: +33.9%

1940

  • Candidates: Franklin D. Roosevelt vs. Wendell Willkie
  • S&P 500 Return: -10.7%

1944

  • Candidates: Franklin D. Roosevelt vs. Thomas E. Dewey
  • S&P 500 Return: +19.7%

1948

  • Candidates: Harry S. Truman vs. Thomas E. Dewey
  • S&P 500 Return: +5.5%

1952

  • Candidates: Dwight D. Eisenhower vs. Adlai Stevenson
  • S&P 500 Return: +11.8%

1956

  • Candidates: Dwight D. Eisenhower vs. Adlai Stevenson
  • S&P 500 Return: +6.6%

1960

  • Candidates: John F. Kennedy vs. Richard Nixon
  • S&P 500 Return: +0.5%

1964

  • Candidates: Lyndon B. Johnson vs. Barry Goldwater
  • S&P 500 Return: +16.5%

1968

  • Candidates: Richard Nixon vs. Hubert Humphrey
  • S&P 500 Return: +11.1%

1972

  • Candidates: Richard Nixon vs. George McGovern
  • S&P 500 Return: +15.6%

1976

  • Candidates: Jimmy Carter vs. Gerald Ford
  • S&P 500 Return: +19.1%

1980

  • Candidates: Ronald Reagan vs. Jimmy Carter
  • S&P 500 Return: +25.8%

1984

  • Candidates: Ronald Reagan vs. Walter Mondale
  • S&P 500 Return: +1.4%

1988

  • Candidates: George H. W. Bush vs. Michael Dukakis
  • S&P 500 Return: +12.4%

1992

  • Candidates: Bill Clinton vs. George H. W. Bush
  • S&P 500 Return: +4.5%

1996

  • Candidates: Bill Clinton vs. Bob Dole
  • S&P 500 Return: +23.0%

2000

  • Candidates: George W. Bush vs. Al Gore
  • S&P 500 Return: -9.1%

2004

  • Candidates: George W. Bush vs. John Kerry
  • S&P 500 Return: +10.9%

2008

  • Candidates: Barack Obama vs. John McCain
  • S&P 500 Return: -37.0%

2012

  • Candidates: Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney
  • S&P 500 Return: +13.4%

2016

  • Candidates: Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton
  • S&P 500 Return: +9.5%

2020

  • Candidates: Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
  • S&P 500 Return: +16.3%

Now, let’s look at the returns for the S&P 500 since 1928:

Average Return (%): 9.84

Median Return (%): 11.45

Best Return (%): 43.6 (1928)

Worst Return (%): -37.0 (2008)

Standard Deviation (%): 16.14

Variance (%): 260.48

Range Return (%): 80.6

If you want to understand the markets better, check out what the Dow Jones Industrial Average measures, learn about modern trading terms explained, and see 65 things learned about investing in 2020.