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Consulting

Stocks and Every Presidential Election

I’ve decided to make a page, a database if you will, of every Presidential Election in the United States as far back as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. As this list gets started, it will only get more comprehensive. For now, it is simply a list of the year, the candidates who competed, and the market’s return during the year of the election from Jan 1 to Dec 31.

1896

  • Candidates: William McKinley vs. William Jennings Bryan
  • Dow Return: +10.6%

1900

  • Candidates: William McKinley vs. William Jennings Bryan
  • Dow Return: +7.1%

1904

  • Candidates: Theodore Roosevelt vs. Alton B. Parker
  • Dow Return: -23.6%

1908

  • Candidates: William Howard Taft vs. William Jennings Bryan
  • Dow Return: +46.6%

1912

  • Candidates: Woodrow Wilson vs. Theodore Roosevelt vs. William Howard Taft
  • Dow Return: +7.6%

1916

  • Candidates: Woodrow Wilson vs. Charles Evans Hughes
  • Dow Return: +2.6%

1920

  • Candidates: Warren G. Harding vs. James M. Cox
  • Dow Return: -32.9%

1924

  • Candidates: Calvin Coolidge vs. John W. Davis
  • Dow Return: +26.2%

1928

  • Candidates: Herbert Hoover vs. Al Smith
  • S&P 500 Return: +43.6%

1932

  • Candidates: Franklin D. Roosevelt vs. Herbert Hoover
  • S&P 500 Return: -8.2%

1936

  • Candidates: Franklin D. Roosevelt vs. Alf Landon
  • S&P 500 Return: +33.9%

1940

  • Candidates: Franklin D. Roosevelt vs. Wendell Willkie
  • S&P 500 Return: -10.7%

1944

  • Candidates: Franklin D. Roosevelt vs. Thomas E. Dewey
  • S&P 500 Return: +19.7%

1948

  • Candidates: Harry S. Truman vs. Thomas E. Dewey
  • S&P 500 Return: +5.5%

1952

  • Candidates: Dwight D. Eisenhower vs. Adlai Stevenson
  • S&P 500 Return: +11.8%

1956

  • Candidates: Dwight D. Eisenhower vs. Adlai Stevenson
  • S&P 500 Return: +6.6%

1960

  • Candidates: John F. Kennedy vs. Richard Nixon
  • S&P 500 Return: +0.5%

1964

  • Candidates: Lyndon B. Johnson vs. Barry Goldwater
  • S&P 500 Return: +16.5%

1968

  • Candidates: Richard Nixon vs. Hubert Humphrey
  • S&P 500 Return: +11.1%

1972

  • Candidates: Richard Nixon vs. George McGovern
  • S&P 500 Return: +15.6%

1976

  • Candidates: Jimmy Carter vs. Gerald Ford
  • S&P 500 Return: +19.1%

1980

  • Candidates: Ronald Reagan vs. Jimmy Carter
  • S&P 500 Return: +25.8%

1984

  • Candidates: Ronald Reagan vs. Walter Mondale
  • S&P 500 Return: +1.4%

1988

  • Candidates: George H. W. Bush vs. Michael Dukakis
  • S&P 500 Return: +12.4%

1992

  • Candidates: Bill Clinton vs. George H. W. Bush
  • S&P 500 Return: +4.5%

1996

  • Candidates: Bill Clinton vs. Bob Dole
  • S&P 500 Return: +23.0%

2000

  • Candidates: George W. Bush vs. Al Gore
  • S&P 500 Return: -9.1%

2004

  • Candidates: George W. Bush vs. John Kerry
  • S&P 500 Return: +10.9%

2008

  • Candidates: Barack Obama vs. John McCain
  • S&P 500 Return: -37.0%

2012

  • Candidates: Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney
  • S&P 500 Return: +13.4%

2016

  • Candidates: Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton
  • S&P 500 Return: +9.5%

2020

  • Candidates: Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
  • S&P 500 Return: +16.3%

Now, let’s look at the returns for the S&P 500 since 1928:

Average Return (%): 9.84

Median Return (%): 11.45

Best Return (%): 43.6 (1928)

Worst Return (%): -37.0 (2008)

Standard Deviation (%): 16.14

Variance (%): 260.48

Range Return (%): 80.6