Stefan Cheplick

Trading & Investing Insights

  • How AI Changes Everything For Retail Traders & Investors

    I think one can make the argument that being a self-directed trader or investor in 2026 is perhaps the greatest time ever, and I mean ever, to be just that. There has literally never been a better time to be a do-it-yourself investor or trader. Say what you will about market access in the 2000s,…

  • Investing Lesson #6: Watch For Your Opportunity

    Crossing a street in New York City, in a way, serves as a nice investing lesson.— an investing lesson about when to follow the crowd and when not to. One that nobody teaches in a classroom, but one you can see play in markets each day. Here’s what I mean: Watch what happens at a…

  • My View on the End of Quarterly Earnings Reports and the Rise of Semiannual Reporting

    The other day, while surfing Reddit, I stumbled across a breaking news story about quarterly earnings reports that immediately caught my attention. I’ve spent more than 14 years on Reddit — even helping moderate one of the largest stock market communities on the platform. I’m always interested in seeing where investor sentiment starts to shift…

  • The End of Social Feeds: Less Screens, More Machines

    For more than ten years now, probably 15, the center of gravity in tech has been Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, TikTok, Tinder, YouTube, and other tools like this. While this is “tech” in the big picture, and as we improve in all facets of society, it truly becomes the lowest form of tech. If you peel…

  • Why Everyone Misunderstands US Debt

    US debt explained in plain terms: there is a large swath of US debt doomers out there. You see them on social media and in blog posts. They write things like “US Debt Hits All-Time High – Crash Coming!” or “Breaking News: Debt Levels At Record Highs Impending Doom!” The Problem With Looking Only at…

  • A Few Learnings From Memory Chip Mania: Micron and SanDisk

    What Drove the Memory Chip Mania? If you blinked at all over the last year, you missed one of the most explosive runs in the semiconductor sector in recent memory. Micron and SanDisk memory chips surged hundreds of percent, driven by an AI-fueled shortage of high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Micron’s management noted that some customers were…

  • The Greatest Deflationary Force of Our Time

    The greatest deflationary force AI and GLP-1 drugs represent may be the most underappreciated economic shift of this decade. I recently read a study about how food, drink, and alcohol shipments and freight traffic are crashing to their lowest levels in several years. The reason? Two powerful forces hitting at once, from opposite directions. GLP-1…

  • Markets and Good Weather

    As you age you are reminded that good weather is always better than markets. Never let markets mess with your enjoyment of good weather. Construct one’s plan accordingly. Having been a self-taught trader/investor for many years now, in my younger years, I have surely been in situations when the great weather kicked off, but my…

  • Investing Lesson #5: There’s No Such Thing as “Free” Research

    In financial markets, nothing is ever “free.” It may look free. It may feel free. It may be presented as research, and arrive in your inbox beautifully formatted, shared on social media, quoted by financial press, or presented in a 47-page PDF with elegant charts and serious fonts. One key fact, however, remains true above…

  • When Doing Nothing In Markets is The Move

    “If a man knows not to which port he sails, no wind is favorable.” – Senaca I am thinking a lot about markets, especially with the AI trend really just now entering everyone’s network. It comes up at every dinner party or gathering. It now reminds me of crypto when it first getting started. I…

  • Bonds Are Back

    A scrappy old bond trader once said to me: if we go below 5, we’re going to 3, and if we go below 3, we’re going to 1. He was talking about the yield on a US 10-Year Treasury Note. Don’t get me wrong, the saying has no scientific backing to it, but in many…

  • Invisible Guest Theory and Investing

    The Invisible Guest Theory is one of those ideas that stops you cold. It suggests that many of our interactions — whether we realize it or not — are quietly shaped by an unseen force: status, judgment, and social hierarchy. These invisible guests sit at every table, turning genuine exchanges into subtle performances. What Is…