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Investing Lessons & Research
Research habits, stock selection, valuation, and practical lessons from investing.
Investing Lesson #6: Watch For Your Opportunity
Investing Lesson #5: There’s No Such Thing as “Free” Research
Invisible Guest Theory and Investing
Investing Lesson #4: Always Someone Faster Than You
Investing Tip #3: Never Trade on Your Phone
Investing Tip #2: Have You Actually Used The Product?
Investing Tip #1: Would People Actually Miss the Company
Your Next Great Investment Starts With Hello
My Favorite Mind Tricks To Avoid Bad Investments
The 10-10-10 Rule for Investors
The Three Buckets Rule That Separates Long-term Investing from Pure Speculation
The Rule of 252 for Investors and Traders
Investing in People With Strength
The Opportunity for Alpha Is to Go Slower
Buy the Team, Not the Story
Stock Picking is Back in 2025
The Best Way to Play Small Caps (and It’s Not the Russell 2000)
Some Early Thoughts on My Investments in 2024
Trading in October: The Data
The S&P 500 ETF SPY is a Money Printing Machine
How to Avoid a BlackBerry Stock
Stock Picking Is as American as It Gets
How Many Exchanges Can You Trade Stocks On?
I Analyzed Stock Splits Over The Last 50+ Years
The Ticker Trap Explained
Math for Traders: What You Should Know
Tips for Aspiring Traders
Buying Dips: A Philosophy
The Different Types of Traders
Awaiting My Next Move
The Market Cap Game
Those Obvious Things Everyone Skips
What Great Investors Are Made Of
80 Things I Learned About Markets in 2019
Investing in the Things You Know, Staying Away from the Things You Don’t
My Thoughts on Passive Investing
Beasts of Record
The Smartest People on the Street
What I Learned About The Stock Market In 2018
Trading Psychology & Risk
Patience, behavior, losses, position management, and the decisions behind a trade.
Outperform in Silence: A Fund Manager’s Code
About The Hedge Fund Kid Who Blew Up His Account
Markets and Good Weather
When Doing Nothing In Markets is The Move
The Who Cares Mentality
The Best Traders Trade Like Themselves
If You’re Not Sleeping, You Shouldn’t Manage Money
The Trader in The Mountains
Risk Management Principles to Survive All Markets
Pride Goeth Before a Fall
The More Unplugged You Are, The Better You’ll Do
Fear is Easy, Patience is Hard
The Power of Beta in Volatile Markets
When Volatility Spikes, You Must Remember Pareto’s Rules
The VIX Rule of 16 for Investors and Traders
Why Markets Exploit Narratives
Ancient Principles for Risk Management
The Swing Trading Mindset
Tax Loss Harvesting on No Volume – Exploring This Week’s Sell-Off
The Art of Emotional Contrarianism
When Stocks Crash on a Friday: A Philosophical Exploration
How Volatility ETFs Trick New Investors & Traders
My Thoughts on Social Media and Investing (or Trading)
The Great Stock Concentration of 2024
Is RoaringKitty Dumb?
50+ Things To Know About Crashes – Stef’s Ultimate Bear Market Guide
Sailing and Trading/Investing
Never Get Too Happy; Never Get Too Sad
The Crash Limit Order Strategy
The Song of Stock Pickers – Wiped Out and Exhausted
In Markets, All That Matters Is What’s Next
The retail trading and investing wave
Patient investing has never been harder
A market timeout
Don’t ever invest in sardines (but it’s okay to trade them)
Long-Term Thinking in Short-Term Panics
When The Sharks Come Out
It’s Not Your Market
The Madness of Markets
Two Kinds of Doing
Sometimes You Just Don’t Know
Centered on Now
When It Rains in Markets
The Deeper Meaning of Risk
You Heard It Once and Now You’re Fooled
Swinging For The Fences In Markets and Life
Slowing Down While Everyone Taps More
Smart People Don’t Do Dumb Things In Seven Seconds
Taking The Other Side
Ankle Breakers, Booming Markets, and Getting Yourself Played By Hype
The Greatest Bubble of All-Time
What Investors Should Never Do
Economy & Policy
Inflation, interest rates, debt, tariffs, economic data, and public policy.
You Must Love Inflation – Sometimes
The Real Treasury Twist
The Treasury Bond Resurgence Part II
My View on the End of Quarterly Earnings Reports and the Rise of Semiannual Reporting
Why Everyone Misunderstands US Debt
The Greatest Deflationary Force of Our Time
Bonds Are Back
Thinking About 5% GDP Growth
The Irony of Dollar Doomers
Reflecting on 249 Years of America
The $1,000 Trump Investment Account is Not a Good Idea
Elon Musk is Wrong About The Big Beautiful Bill
My Thoughts on US Debt
The Difference Between Inflation and Tariffs That 99% of People Get Wrong
What Actually Happened to Stocks and Tariffs in the 1920s?
What If Lower Rates Are Actually Deflationary?
The Case For Tariffs: A Deep Dive Into the Unthinkable
You’ve Never Seen This Much Fear Mongering in Such Amazing Times
How The Tariff Playbook Should Have Went
Why Tariffs Do Not Cause Inflation: There Are Substitute Products
Want To Learn About Tariffs? Talk To People Who Actually Build
Here Comes The Deregulation Wave
The Bessent and Powell Plan
Powell and Bessent: The Greatest Fiscal Duo of Our Time
The Worst Jobs Report Ever is the BEST Jobs Report Ever
Why I’m More Critical of Traditional Economic Data Than Ever
The Greatest Economic Dance Ever Witnessed
No Matter What They Say, They Are Paying Attention
Here’s Every Country That Tariffs America
The “Hell Yes” or “No” Movement
When Stocks Fall Because of Economic Events
My Thoughts on The Doge Dividend
A Lesson In Following Economic Data
Do Politics Move Individual Stocks?
The 4D Chess in Washington DC is a Masterclass
The Tariff Twist That Lowers Prices
A New Economic Era for America
100 Notes From Scott Bessent’s Important Senate Hearing
Macro Trading Concepts for Everyday Life
Everyone on X Talks About The Fed
Scott Bessent is the Most Important Cabinet Pick of My Lifetime
What If We Get a Stronger Dollar in 2025
What is The Price of Gold Saying?
My Thoughts on Elections and Trading
The Coming Housing Market Washout
An Abundance of Energy
2024 Election Stocks: Complete List for Investors
Self-Sufficiency in 2024
A Hard Time To Buy A Home
Very Large Numbers
Inflation Thoughts (Part 2) and Musings About America
War Time Markets and Some Other Thoughts
Market Panics and The Paradox of Thrift
Weird Times for Inflation
Inflation, Oil, and Today’s Wars
Thinking About The Rona Part 3
Some Thoughts on Inflation
An Unheard Of Comeback
The political noise machine
Thinking About The Rona Part 2
No One Man Should Have All That Power
The Fed’s Wild Ride
My Views on the Fed
Thinking About The Rona
The Thing About a Crisis
Free Trade Was Never Free
The Perils of Rewarding Failure
Corporate Apologism
My Thoughts on Wealth Inequality and the Fed
A Record Number of Millionaires
Betting Against The War Drum
Cash Rich, Asset Rich, and Repo Markets
Inflation-Adjusted Returns Always Suck
The Great Monetization
Here’s Why Stocks Dropped This Month
What $1 Trillion Really Means
AI & Technology
Artificial intelligence, new technologies, social platforms, and the physical world.
How AI Voice Lifts Society From The Doomscrolling Era
The Next Layer of AI
When Everyone’s Investing With AI, The Real Pros Have a Notepad
How AI Impacts The Nasdaq-100
How AI Changes Everything For Retail Traders & Investors
The End of Social Feeds: Less Screens, More Machines
The Age of The Polymath
Dream Scale Now and Don’t Let Anyone Stop You
The Rise of Dream Scaling, The Fall of Doom Scrolling
The Tech We Have, That You Don’t Know
Too Many Digital Opinions, Not Enough Physical Opinions
Atoms vs. Bits: The Next Wave for Investors
The Next Wave of Market Giants are Physical Builders
The Rise of Build in Public
Produce More Than You Consume – My 2025 Goal
This is Our Christopher Columbus Moment
The Ancient Philosophers Are Dreaming of Having The Tools We Have
My Most Important AI Question
I’ve Never Been More Excited About 3D Printing
Why Are We Not Watching The Global Math Olympics?
Apple Has Single Handedly Boosted TikTok to the Top of App Stores
AI as the Next Industrial Revolution
NVIDIA’s Free Online Courses – Review
Big Tech is Old Tech Now
Reddit, X, and Musk
Why Banning TikTok Makes Sense
IBM Watson Lost The AI Race Despite Being First
Your Content Probably Helped Train AI
My Current Thoughts On AI
Why I Think Elon Musk Bought Twitter
Some Thoughts on Elon Musk Buying Twitter
No Longer Twitter’s Most Loyal Bagholder
Peak Centralization vs. Peak Decentralization
Shaped By The Digital World
My Thoughts on Fake News
It’s Feels Crazier, But Maybe That Makes Sense
A Simple Thought on Optimism
Easy To See, Hard To See Why
It’s Newer Than We Think But It’s Happened Before
When The Experts Get Things Wrong and How That Cost AT&T $12 Billion
Stocks & Market Themes
Stocks, sectors, commodities, market moves, and investment themes.
SpaceX, Gravity, and Starfall Crystals in Space
More Micron Musings: My Most Read Post of The Year
Some Facts About The SpaceX IPO
A Few Learnings From Memory Chip Mania: Micron and SanDisk
What’s Next For The Silver Trade?
From Epic Trade to Epic Crash: Silver Edition
The Epic Metals Trade That Defines The Next Era
The Great Silver Breakout of 2025
Nike is Tapping Back Into Its Roots
The Factory Boom is Here
The Massive Bull Case for Domestic Manufacturing Companies
Exploring Onshore Manufacturing Stocks in the US
The First Time Ever I’ve Become an Apple Bear
My Unfiltered Views on Markets Right Now
Digesting All The Market Action
Lessons From The Last Month of Markets
Epic Moves Happen at Pivotal Moments
The M&A Market is Thawing
An Incredible Stock Market Opportunity Has Arrived
Looking For Outperformance In The Crash
Value Stocks Are Moving While Markets Tank
Brilliant Cash Management from a Company You Never Heard Of
While Everyone Focuses on NVIDIA, They Miss The Real Moves
The Coming Go-Private Boom
How I’ll Play The Data Center Boom
The Return of Beaten Down Covid Stocks
The Bull Market in Rice Bowls
Weight Loss Stocks Are Beating AI Stocks
My Thoughts on NVIDIA (Updated)
The IPO Market Returns?
The American Manufacturing Boom Begins Now
Updating Stef’s Super Spicy 25 – July 2024
The Olive Oil Stock That’s Outperforming Everything
The Dash for Trash Explained
The First Trillion Dollar Healthcare Company
I’m Looking for Hidden AI Stocks
The Energy Drink Bull Market
The AI Flippening: NVIDA is Larger Than Google (Part 1)
The Repeating Nature of Markets
How I Missed The Reddit IPO
The Irony of DraftKings as a Stock
Boeing’s CEO: Wtf Were They Thinking?
Weight Loss Drugs and Markets
Expensify – Value Investing in Tech
The Next “Energy Moment”
The Graveyard Indicator For Startups
The 1x One Quarter of Revenue List
Okay, This is Getting Crazy
Stef’s Super Spicy 25 🌶
Trading vs. Reality
The First $100 Billion Pre Revenue Company
New Age Wind Hawkers
Some Summer Thoughts About Markets
How Precious Metals Could Squeeze Tech
The Cash Machine
Joe Kennedy and Stock Market Crashes
The Subscription Bubble
Selling To Everyone When Everyone Is No One
Who Will Be There To Capture The Boom?
My Thoughts On Elon Musk
How To Invest During Corrections, Panics, and Crashes
Crypto & Digital Finance
Bitcoin, crypto markets, decentralization, and the changing financial industry.
My Thoughts on The Biggest Crypto Hack Ever
Bitcoin’s Largest Holders: Banks vs. People
The Lesson in Robinhood’s Comeback
Do You Know Who Bitcoin’s Largest Holders Are?
Bitcoin at $90,000
When Will The Modern Fintechs Become The New Banks?
The SEC’s Crypto Predicament
What Will Happen With MicroStrategy, Bitcoin, and Saylor?
The Paperization of Markets Is Why Crypto Will Eventually Win
All of Crypto Is Now Worth More Than All of Apple
Bitcoin is Worth More Than All of Tesla… Twice
TradFi
Cold Storage Only
Dog Coins
D.R.E.A.M.
Some Dogecoin Thoughts
The Crypto Mining Conundrum
Welcome To Market Mania
Buffett vs. Robinhood
I Own A Little Bitcoin Even Though I Think It’s Going To Fail
Investor Wisdom
Ideas from Buffett, Munger, Lynch, Druckenmiller, and other investors and thinkers.
Thomas Jefferson’s Wisdom on Being Young and Broke
Warren Buffett Started as a Pinball Man
Trading Wisdom From Ancient Venetians
Ben Franklin Wisdom for Investing
Stanley Druckenmiller on Investing Success
Some of My Favorite Peter Lynch Quotes
Cicero Quotes for Investors
99% of Warren Buffet’s Wealth Was Created After He Turned 50
The Teachings of Master Yip Man
The Peter Lynch Investing Strategy
My Favorite Ben Graham Quote
My Favorite Charlie Munger Quotes
Munger and Mozart
Howard Marks on When To Buy
Charlie Munger’s Simple Wisdom
Cash Is Like Oxygen
Charlie Munger’s Secret
The Importance Of Cash
The Most Disrespectful Hedge Fund Letter Ever
A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom as It Relates to Investment Management and Business
Life & Career
Family, work, creativity, community, and a life around the markets.
A Quick Reflection on My Career
My Thoughts on The Recent Tragedies
The Man Who Trades Stocks From Planet Mars
The Trader You Never Knew
Sleep Well, Live Well
I Lost A Friend
My Dad – John Cheplick
Impact Over Views
The Man Behind The Screen
The Real Ones
Year 8
I Put My Socks on Standing Up
You Thought The World Was Ending, You Thought Wrong
The Greatest Hoax of All-Time
Then and Now
You Are Always Going Up Against Something
Investing In People and Ideas Who Tell You You’re Wrong
An Ode to Grandfatherly Wisdom
Six investing lessons
Latest entries
New Age Wind Hawkers
Those Obvious Things Everyone Skips
An Unheard Of Comeback
Peak Centralization vs. Peak Decentralization
The retail trading and investing wave
Patient investing has never been harder
The political noise machine
A market timeout
Don’t ever invest in sardines (but it’s okay to trade them)
Some Summer Thoughts About Markets
How Precious Metals Could Squeeze Tech
Thinking About The Rona Part 2